글로벌 무역 금융 시장 – 2023-2030

Overview
Global Trade Finance Market reached US$ 4.1 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach US$ 5.2 billion by 2030, growing with a CAGR of 3.0% during the forecast period 2023-2030.
The global trade finance market is expected to be driven by the rise of subsidies, export controls and investment restrictions, while contributing to trade fragmentation, which has inadvertently spurred the demand for sophisticated financial solutions. The increasing number of trade restrictive measures, particularly since the onset of the pandemic, highlights the need for innovative financial instruments to mitigate the impacts of protectionism.
Furthermore, the anticipated growth in demand for services, notably in travel and transport sectors, is poised to drive an increased need for trade finance solutions. The projected growth in tourism in 2023, attributed to factors such as the easing of China's zero-COVID policy and a robust U.S. dollar, accentuates the significance of trade finance in ensuring smooth cross-border transactions in the service industry.
Asia-Pacific dominates the trade finance market and is expected to grow with a good CAGR in the forecast period. The People's Republic of China (PRC), as the world's second-largest economy and a key player in international trade, significantly contributes to this market's growth and expansion. China exports goods and services to U.S. by 17.1% to US$527.6 billion. Also, the PRC's industrial policies, including initiatives like "Made in China 2025" and the "14th Five Year Plan," target strategic sectors such as advanced technology, robotics, aviation, new energy vehicles and biopharmaceuticals.
Dynamics
Global Expansion of SMEs
The global finance trade market is expected to be driven by growing Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) globally. Trade finance, which involves financial instruments and means of payment for international transactions, can greatly enhance SMEs' ability to engage in international trade and participate in global value chains. Payments are made within two business days after invoicing, allowing SMEs to maintain better cash flow.
According to a report by Investopedia, SMEs account for approximately 95% of the world's economy. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) estimates that around 40% of formal micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in developing countries have an unmet financing need of US$5.2 trillion annually. The financing gap represents significant untapped potential for SME growth which subsequently increases the growth for trade finance market.
Global Trade Market Resilience Amid Challenges and Positive Shifts
The global finance trade market is expected to be driven by growing globalization, with projections by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development indicating that it would reach a remarkable US$32 trillion in 2022. Despite the challenges posed by the war in Ukraine and the lasting effects of the pandemic, the trade in both goods and services exhibited robust expansion throughout the current year. Notably, trade in goods experienced a notable uptick of 10%, reaching an estimated value of US$25 trillion, partially driven by increased energy costs. Concurrently, services trade displayed a remarkable surge of 15%, culminating in a record-breaking US$7 trillion.
Furthermore, several positive aspects contribute to the trade landscape, including the positive effects of new trade agreements and improved logistics. The implementation of trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the African Continental Free Trade Area, along with advantrade finances in logistics, has provided a favorable environment for trade expansion. The evolving nature of supply chain strategies, such as diversification of suppliers and reshoring efforts, is likely to influence trade patterns in 2023.
Geopolitical Tensions’
The global finance trade market is expected to be restrained by the growing geopolitical tension globally by disrupting international trade flows by prompting countries to impose trade restrictions, leading to a decreased demand for trade finance service. Financial fragmentation may arise, causing disruptions in capital flows and trade due to sanctions, leading to higher costs and reduced accessibility to trade financing.
In all scenarios, cross-bloc trade is projected to fall dramatically after the policy interventions. According to a report by VOXEU CEPR, under the full decoupling scenario, cross-bloc trade is estimated to decline by 98%. Both the increases in trade costs and retaliatory tariff hikes lead to substantial welfare decreases for all countries. However, the effects are asymmetric. Western bloc countries experience welfare losses ranging from -1% to -8%, while Eastern bloc countries suffer larger losses of around -8% to -11%. The global projected real income loss is estimated to be about 5%. The tensions can create uncertainty, disrupt trade flows and affect the availability and terms of trade finance.
Segment Analysis
The global trade finance market is segmented based on product, finance, service provider, end-user and region.
Letters of Credit are the Most Preferred Trade Finance Product
Letters of Credit hold the largest market share in the product type segment with their ability to provide security and assurance in complex international trade transactions. Acting as a guarantee that payment will be received on time and in the correct amount, LCs are emerges as most valuable technology in higher-risk scenarios, new trade relationships and situations where an importer's credit is uncertain.
Indian startup KredX, which specializes in invoice discounting, has launched its International Trade Financing Services (ITFS) platform. The new platform, operated by its subsidiary KredX Ventures IFSC, will facilitate invoice discounting for both Indian exporters and importers. Through the ITFS platform, businesses can access various trade finance services like reverse trade financing, bill discounting through letter of credit and supply chain finance, all of which assist in converting trade receivables into liquid funds.
Geographical Penetration
Letter Of Trade Empowering Global Trade Finance Market
Asia-Pacific is the largest region in trade finance market driven by the trade relationships globally and trade presence of trade dominating countries like China, Japan and India. In the past, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a significant recovery, forecasting that Indian GDP growth would achieve an impressive 9.0 percent in 2021. Additionally, there was an expectation that the Indian economy would experience growth of 6.4 percent in 2022. The resurgence in economic performance highlighted the resilience and adaptability of the region.
Furthermore, according to the "International Trade Administration", in U.S. imports of goods from Japan neared US$135 billion, complemented by services imports of around US$33 billion, contributing to a combined total of US$167 billion. It represented a noteworthy 9.3 percent increase from the previous year. Among the top U.S. imports from Japan are automobiles, auto parts and electronics. Japan's position as the fourth-largest export market and trading partner for U.S. underscores its pivotal role in regional trade dynamics.
Competitive Landscape
The major global players in the market include Oracle, Finastra, Surecomp, China Systems, Intellect Design Arena, iGTB (Intellect Global Transaction Banking), MITech, Innover Systems, CGI Trade360 and Cognizant.
COVID-19 Impact Analysis
The COVID-19 pandemic made a significant impact on global economies and trade which leads to a significant disruption in trade financing. The crisis has emphasized the importance of trade finance in enabling cross-border trade and the need for collaborative efforts between private and public sectors to address the resulting challenges. Governments and international institutions have taken various measures to address these issues.
Initiatives include increased trade finance support to developing countries and smaller businesses, promoting paperless trading through legal reforms and efforts to mitigate constraints hindering the deployment of essential trade finance. The International Chamber of Commerce estimates a requirement of US$ 2 trillion to US$ 5 trillion in financing capacity to meet the heightened demand. The global trade finance gap has been evident even before the pandemic, with developing countries and micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises being disproportionately affected.
Russia-Ukraine War Impact
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had significant repercussions on trade finance and international business, primarily due to the imposition of stringent sanctions by various governments and regulators. The sanctions target key strategic industries in Russia and aim to hinder its war effort. Governments and regulatory bodies in regions such as the European Union, North America, parts of Asia and United Kingdom have implemented multiple types of sanctions against Russia and Belarus.
The intention behind these sanctions is to create obstacles for Russia's military actions and to put pressure on the aggressor to de-escalate the conflict. However, the gradual rollout of stringent sanctions has also led to unintended consequences, such as the rise of illicit trade behaviors. Also, dark shipping activity, manipulation of vessel flags and the movement of illicit goods have increased due to the complexities introduced by the sanctions regime.
By Product
● Letters of Credit
● Export Factoring
● Insurance
● Bill of Lading
● Guarantees
● Others
By Finance
● Structured Trade Finance
● Supply Chain Finance
● Traditional Trade Finance
By Service Provider
● Banks
● Trade Finance Houses
● Others
By End-User
● Large Enterprises
● Small & Medium Enterprises
By Region
● North America
o U.S.
o Canada
o Mexico
● Europe
o Germany
o UK
o France
o Italy
o Spain
o Rest of Europe
● South America
o Brazil
o Argentina
o Rest of South America
● Asia-Pacific
o China
o India
o Japan
o Australia
o Rest of Asia-Pacific
● Middle East and Africa
Key Developments
● In August 2023, Emirates Development Bank and Trade Capital Partners have joined forces to introduce supply chain finance and working capital solutions for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in UAE. By leveraging the expertise of EDB and the platform provided by Trade Capital Partners, the partnership aims to extend financing solutions to a broader range of businesses, aligning with UAE's emphasis on supporting SME growth and fostering innovation. The partnership with EDB will offer substantial support to this ecosystem and provide trade finance alternatives that can contribute to the expansion of these growing businesses.
● In July 2023, ABN AMRO Bank announced the deployment of a trade finance automation solution from Commercial Banking Applications, specifically the latest version of CBA's IBAS GTF (Global Trade Finance Factory). The Dutch bank has integrated this solution into its global trade finance operations, aiming to enhance efficiency, automation and customer experience.
● In April 2023, Accelerated Payments, a global leader in comprehensive working capital solutions, unveiled its innovative trade finance product named AP Trade Finance (APTF). The cutting-edge offering introduces unprecedented flexibility and control, positioning it as an optimal solution for businesses engaged in international operations.
Why Purchase the Report?
● To visualize the global trade finance market segmentation based on product, finance, service provider, end-user and region, as well as understand key commercial assets and players.
● Identify commercial opportunities by analyzing trends and co-development.
● Excel data sheet with numerous data points of trade finance market-level with all segments.
● PDF report consists of a comprehensive analysis after exhaustive qualitative interviews and an in-depth study.
● Product mapping available as excel consisting of key products of all the major players.
The global trade finance market report would provide approximately 64 tables, 69 figures and 210 Pages.
Target Audience 2023
• Manufacturers/ Buyers
• Industry Investors/Investment Bankers
• Research Professionals
• Emerging Companies