세계 주택 담보 대출 시장 – 2023-2030

Overview
Global Residential Mortgage Market reached US$ 11.2 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach US$ 26.5 billion by 2030, growing with a CAGR of 11.3% during the forecast period 2023-2030.
The residential mortgage market is expected to be driven by a rise in government incentives and schemes for residential finance and benefits, as they address critical aspects of affordability, demand stimulation and financial accessibility. Furthermore, government intervention extends to tax benefits like those provided under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) framework. By standardizing taxes on under-construction properties and offering input tax credits to first-time homebuyers, these incentives directly enhance affordability, enticing more individuals to consider purchasing homes.
In countries like India, where homeownership is a vital aspiration, initiatives such as the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana play a pivotal role. PMAY's multifaceted approach encompasses interest subsidies, affordable housing projects and financial aid for construction, all of which significantly lower the financial burden on potential homebuyers.
Also, the Federal Housing Administration in U.S. insures loans, allowing lenders to offer more favorable terms, lower down payments and reduced closing costs. The increased accessibility to credit encourages a diverse array of potential homebuyers to participate in the market, driving growth.
Asia-Pacific holds the largest regional share in the residential mortgage market driven by a confluence of factors that influence housing dynamics and economic interactions. Housing market dynamics in Asia-Pacific economies also exert considerable influence on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Housing-related items comprise a significant share of the CPI basket in many economies across the region, often exceeding the average for OECD countries.
Dynamics
Government Policies and Macroeconomic Measures
The residential mortgage market is expected to be driven by government policies and tax policies related to homeownership, such as mortgage interest deductions and property tax deductions, for the push toward home affordability for lower and middle-class people globally. The evolving nature of government policies in the residential mortgage market underscores their instrumental role in maintaining stability
Furthermore, after Global Financial Crisis prompted countries globally to equip themselves with macroprudential policy measures, an arsenal designed to mitigate risks and bolster financial resilience. The measures, ranging from loan-to-value ratio restrictions to debt service-to-income limits and capital-based tools, were strategically deployed in response to evolving risks, often focusing on the household sector.
Urbanization Boosts Residential Mortgage Demand for Growing Cities
The residential mortgage market is expected to be driven by growth in urbanization globally, with over half of the world's population residing in cities and this trend projected to intensify, the demand for housing is surging. According to world bank data, by 2050, urban population figures are expected to double, with nearly 7 out of 10 people living in urban areas. With this, there's a pressing need for affordable housing, infrastructure, services and jobs to accommodate the urban surge, particularly for the urban poor and those living in informal settlements.
Furthermore, as the global urban population is significantly growing, it subsequently increases the demand for housing in cities and urban centers. With limited available space and rising property values, many individuals and families are turning to residential mortgages to finance their homes. Shortages of affordable housing in high-demand markets are pushing individuals to explore homeownership options through mortgage financing in urban areas.
Inflation Spurs Mortgage Rate Hikes, Impacting Homebuying Costs
The residential mortgage market is restrained by ongoing inflation in different countries, according to rocket mortgage report in mid-April, a surge in the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to 5% coincided with a substantial rise in U.S. inflation rate to 8.5% for the year ending March 2022. The elevation in inflation, the highest since 1981, indirectly impacts mortgage rates by eroding the purchasing power of U.S. dollar, thereby prompting price increases across the board, including mortgage rates.
Consequently, while inflation doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates, it can set off a chain reaction, diminishing demand for mortgage-backed bonds and resulting in higher interest rates across mortgage types and this dynamic leads to the overall cost of home loans rising, amplifying the expenses associated with buying a house, amidst a backdrop of increased housing prices and limited supply. While it's challenging to predict exact outcomes, the content suggests that mortgage rates are likely to continue climbing in response to the combination of inflation and other economic factors during the forecast period.
Segment Analysis
The global microfinance market is segmented based on type, provider and region.
The Dominance of Fixed Mortgages in the Residential Market
Fixed mortgage holds the largest share in residential mortgage market due to their stability and predictability. The mortgages offer borrowers protection against interest rate fluctuations, ensuring that their interest rate remains constant throughout the loan term. Fixed-rate mortgages typically come with terms of 15 to 30 years, providing borrowers with options that align with their financial goals and preferences. The mortgages are popular among those seeking long-term stability and predictability in their housing expenses.
HSBC has introduced a significant development in the residential mortgage market, offering five-year fixed-rate mortgages below 4% for the first time since the disruptive autumn mini-budget. The bank has repriced its mortgage range, presenting a new five-year fixed-rate option at 3.99% for remortgage customers seeking up to 60% of their property's value. The move allows homeowners to secure their monthly home loan expenses below the Bank of England base rate, which recently reached 4%.
Geographical Penetration
Asia's Government Support and Urbanization Drive Mortgage Market Growth
Asia-Pacific is the largest region in the residential mortgage market with increasing government support and growing urbanization in the region. Governments in countries like China and Japan are making approaches to the property market have been cautious due to concerns about housing bubbles and financial stability. The Chinese housing ministry has announced plans to make it easier for people to buy property. It includes easing purchase restrictions for individuals wanting to buy a second house.
Furthermore, growing urbanization in Asia is having a significant impact on the residential mortgage market. According to Asian Development Bank article, Asia is undergoing unprecedented urbanization, with a projected addition of 1.1 billion people to its cities within the next two decades. The massive influx of people into urban areas is driving the need for housing, creating a surge in demand for residential properties and subsequently boosting the demand for mortgages.
Competitive Landscape
The major global players in the market include Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Rocket Mortgage, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America Home Loans, U.S. Bank Home Mortgage, CitiMortgage, PNC Mortgage, SunTrust Mortgage, Freedom Mortgage and PennyMac Loan Services.
COVID-19 Impact Analysis
COVID-19 significantly impacted the residential mortgage market, affecting homeowners and lenders alike. Widespread economic uncertainty, job losses and decreased income have strained homeowners' ability to make mortgage payments, prompting increased default risks and foreclosure concerns. In response, governments and lenders have rolled out forbearance programs, offering temporary relief by suspending or reducing mortgage payments to prevent widespread foreclosures.
Furthermore, it has put lenders at risk as mortgage debt forms a substantial part of their assets, causing operational disruptions and necessitating rapid adaptation to accommodate remote work and customer service inquiries. Governments globally have employed diverse strategies to bolster residential mortgage markets in the face of COVID-19's challenges. The include financial aid for homeowners, moratoriums on foreclosures and coordination with lenders to establish mortgage relief programs.
Russia-Ukraine War Impact
Russia-Ukraine war significantly affected the residential mortgage market, causing fluctuations in interest rates and disrupting market dynamics. The escalating tensions between the two countries have led to a surge in uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safer assets like bonds, which, in turn, has caused interest rates to drop sharply. Geopolitical conflicts often trigger shifts in investor behavior as they seek stability, resulting in increased demand for bonds and mortgage-backed securities, consequently driving down interest rates.
Furthermore, the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war extend beyond interest rates. Economic sanctions and supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict impacted the prices of key commodities like aluminum and steel, which are essential components of the construction industry. The disruption of supply chains across the Black Sea region, where Russia and Ukraine play significant roles, has led to shortages and price hikes in building materials. It has subsequently raised concerns about the affordability of homes, as the increased costs of construction materials contribute to higher property prices.
By Type
• Fixed-Rate Mortgage (FRM)
• Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)
• FHA Loan
• VA Loan
• Jumbo Loan
• Conventional Loan
By Provider
• Banks
• Credit Unions
• Online Lenders
• Non-Bank Lenders
• Mortgage Companies
• Savings and Loan Associations
• Government Agencies
By Region
• North America
o U.S.
o Canada
o Mexico
• Europe
o Germany
o UK
o France
o Italy
o Russia
o Rest of Europe
• South America
o Brazil
o Argentina
o Rest of South America
• Asia-Pacific
o China
o India
o Japan
o Australia
o Rest of Asia-Pacific
• Middle East and Africa
Key Developments
• In July 2023, LendInvest, a prominent player in the lending industry, has made a significant move in UK mortgage market by launching its residential mortgage product range nationwide. The pivotal step marks not only a major achievement for the company but also a notable development for the entire industry. The move enables all UK intermediaries to access LendInvest's newly introduced residential mortgage offerings via their online platform.
• In June 2023, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE), a prominent global provider of data, technology and market infrastructure, successfully launched its first mortgage. The two cash-settled futures contracts are based on the ICE U.S. Conforming 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate Lock Index and the ICE U.S. Jumbo 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate Lock Index. The indices are updated daily and track U.S. residential mortgage loan applications where borrowers and lenders commit to locking in interest rates before closing. By tying these futures contracts to primary market rates, investors now have a more precise tool to hedge their exposure to U.S. residential mortgage rates, surpassing the available options.
• In June 2023, Guild Mortgage announced the launch of its innovative 1% Down Payment Advantage program. The program is designed to enhance accessibility to homeownership within the current housing market landscape. Traditionally, a 3% down payment is required for conventional loans. The 1% Down Payment Advantage program enables prospective homebuyers to secure a home with a mere 1% down payment of the purchase price, with Guild covering the remaining 2%, effectively fulfilling the 3% requirement.
Why Purchase the Report?
• To visualize the global residential mortgage market segmentation based on type, provider and region, as well as understand key commercial assets and players.
• Identify commercial opportunities by analyzing trends and co-development.
• Excel data sheet with numerous data points of residential mortgage market-level with all segments.
• PDF report consists of a comprehensive analysis after exhaustive qualitative interviews and an in-depth study.
• Product mapping available as excel consisting of key products of all the major players.
The global microfinance market report would provide approximately 53 tables, 54 figures and 190 Pages.
Target Audience 2023
• Manufacturers/ Buyers
• Industry Investors/Investment Bankers
• Research Professionals
• Emerging Companies